Archive for the ‘Current Affairs’ Category
U.S. housing starts continue to fall in June
Housing starts fell 5.0 percent in June, as the expiration of the homebuyers’ tax credit led to a pullback in new building. Single-family starts slipped 0.7 percent. Permits for multi-family, however, rose 19.6 percent.
The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index declined for the second consecutive month in April to its lowest level in over a year as homebuilders remained less confident about housing market conditions. The downward trend in builder sentiment, mortgage applications, sales, permits and starts continues to suggest residential construction will likely fall this summer.
Business model based on happiness: Chip Conley
Hotelier Chip Conley shares with TED audiences how his company embraced happiness in its business model. Inspired by Maslow’s Hierarchy of Need and a Buddhist king, Conley learned the importance and value of “the intangible of happiness.”
Retail sales in the U.S. stalled in June: Maybe the iPhone will save us
By Wells Fargo Research
Retail sales fell slightly more than expected in June, with overall sales declining 0.5% and sales excluding motor vehicles declining 0.1%. The weakness was not totally unexpected as several weekly sales measures have been posting declines for much of the past two months and consumer confidence and buying plans both fell sharply in June. The loss of momentum is most apparent in the three-month rate of growth, which has slowed to a 4.1% pace for overall sales and just a 2.7% pace for sales excluding motor vehicles.
Sales at motor vehicle dealers fell 2.3% following a 0.6% drop in May. The major motor vehicle manufacturers recently announced they would keep assembly plants operating throughout the summer, as sales were reported to be robust and inventories were reported to be in line with demand or possibly even a bit tight. This morning’s sales figures cast some doubt on these predictions and raise the possibility that we may see an unintended build in inventories this summer that requires more extensive sales incentives or production cutbacks to clear out inventory.
The one big gainer for the month was electronics stores, where sales jumped 1.3 percent, following a 0.9 percent jump in May. The increases likely reflect the introduction of a number of new smartphones, most notably the newest iPhone, which debuted in June.
Freebird, Conan O’Brien, goes out in style
In case you missed the always spectacular Conan O’Brien say farewell to The Tonight Show, you can watch him go out with a bang below. Early in the show, O’Brien fought off tears, but here he is, all smiles, jamming on the guitar to Lynyrd Skynyrd’s Freebird. With the help of best bud, Will Ferrel (who brought his famous cowbell), legends Ben Harper and Beck, and Billy Gibbons of ZZ Top (who even wore a suit, by the way), O’Brien went out in pure style.
What Haiti really looks like now, in 360º
If you want to help, donate money via iTunes and the Red Cross.
La diferencia entre la crisis de 1995 y ahora
En 1995, la economía de México tenía un punto a favor. El entorno económico externo era favorable, por lo que el consumo de productos intermedios (procesados por el sector industrial mexicano) era positivo. Además, la fuerte depreciación del peso mexicano hacía que los ingresos de dicho sector se acentuaran aún más. Eso propició un rebote que permitió a la economía mexicana recuperarse en 1996 a una tasa de +5.2% después de haber caído -6.2% en 1995.
En 2009 la economía mexicana caerá casi un -8.0%. El origen de esto fue principalmente de factores externos: la crisis hipotecaria en EE.UU. (y otros países), sus efectos sobre el sistema financiero mundial, el significativo aumento de la aversión al riesgo y condiciones crediticias mucho más endurecidas. Tal crisis ha dejado mal paradas a las economías desarrolladas (principalmente EE.UU. y Europa), lo cual contribuirá negativamente a la recuperación en México.
Prueba de esto es que se estime un crecimiento en torno al +2.0 o +3.0% en 2010. Esto sería un número paupérrimo comparado al observado en 1996 después de la crisis. Ahora, con una economía cayendo aún más, el rebote debería de ser aún mayor que entonces! Sin embargo, la debilidad del entorno mundial será un factor negativo, en esta ocasión, que no permitirá a la actividad mexicana en recuperarse significativamente. La recuperación del empleo no será lo que todos esperamos.
La muerte anunciada de PEMEX
La semana pasada la revista The Economist publicó un artículo en su edición impresa en el que analizaba la salud de la paraestatal PEMEX. Se preguntaba cuántos mexicanos se necesitaban para perforar un pozo en el Golfo de México. Son 140,000 los empleados que laboran en PEMEX, y se estima que sobran más de 30,000 de ellos. Sin embargo, despedir a tal cantidad de gente en una sentada sería políticamente tóxico para el PRI.
Entre los sindicatos y la “inmunidad” de los empleados de PEMEX es imposible mantener a ese gigante de barro. La inversión es necesaria pero gente, como el PRD, dice que el petróleo es de todos los mexicanos. Totalmente de acuerdo, pero si no permitimos la inversión de al menos 10 mil millones de dólares al año, México será un importador neto de petróleo en 2017.
Entonces, ¿qué vamos a hacer? Esperar a que se nos terminé el petróleo y reducir brutalmente el gasto del gobierno, o peor aún, incrementar los impuestos sustancialmente para sostener el desequilibrio fiscal que se generaría al dejar crecer este problema.
Hace cinco años, Cantarell –nuestro galgo más pesado– solía producir 2.1 millones de barriles al día, ahora sólo produce 600 mil, poco menos de una tercera parte. ¿Cuál sería el escenario más factible en 10 años? ¿Cuáles son las soluciones? ¿Seguir diciendo que el petróleo es de los mexicanos? ¿Cuál petróleo?
Estén preparados para perder al gigante de pies de barro. Parece ser un cáncer irremediablemente fatal. Qué lástima que tuvimos la solución frente a nosotros y nunca se tuvo la voluntad política de hacer lo correcto.
The demise of the dollar
In the most profound financial change in recent Middle East history, Gulf Arabs are planning – along with China, Russia, Japan and France – to end dollar dealings for oil, moving instead to a basket of currencies including the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, the euro, gold and a new, unified currency planned for nations in the Gulf Co-operation Council, including Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Qatar.
Secret meetings have already been held by finance ministers and central bank governors in Russia, China, Japan and Brazil to work on the scheme, which will mean that oil will no longer be priced in dollars.
The plans, confirmed to The Independent by both Gulf Arab and Chinese banking sources in Hong Kong, may help to explain the sudden rise in gold prices, but it also augurs an extraordinary transition from dollar markets within nine years.
Firms Get a Hand With Twitter, Facebook
From the WSJ
Sylvester Chisom began paying a consultant last summer to blog on Twitter, post status updates on Facebook and run marketing campaigns on both sites for his auto-detailing business.
He thinks the service, which costs $450 a month, is worth it. “It’s just better having somebody else dedicated to thinking of stuff to put up,” says Mr. Chisom, co-owner of Showroom Shine Express Detailing LLC in St. Louis.
Some small-business owners, overwhelmed by the time commitment required of marketing their products and services via social media, are hiring consultants to lend a hand. But the price of such support can vary widely based on the extent of work involved, and many entrepreneurs with already meager resources for marketing and advertising may need to think carefully before taking on the extra cost.
The start-up 3 Green Angels, for example, charges clients a $400 fee to organize Twitter parties — real-time discussions on specific topics. Everywhere LLC, another specialty firm in Atlanta, charges clients up to $20,000 to arrange three streaming video press conferences led by popular bloggers.
How to Go on the Offensive with Facebook
By Guy Kawasaki
A friend of mine conducted this informal poll about what a person should do if she were asked to show a male interviewer her Facebook page. Only 12% said they would agree. Thirty-three percent said they would walk out of the interview or refuse. Fifty-five percent said they would ask why and then decide.
It’s time to “face” two facts: First, most organizations are either already looking at candidates’ Facebook profiles, or they are going to start soon. Second, people who are worth hiring either have a social-networking profile on some service or will soon—indeed, recruiters may already think that a candidate who doesn’t have a profile is hiding something, disconnected, or clueless.
Given these two developments, the defensive advice that experts are pedaling to “be careful what you put on your Facebook profile because recruiters may look at it” is ass-backwards. Instead, you should assume that organizations are checking you out (in fact, I blogged about a more efficient way to do this here) and use this to your advantage.
That is, rather than cleanse profiles in order to escape rejection, enlightened candidates will use Facebook profiles to market themselves—perhaps even asking to show their Facebook profiles in interviews. Think about what companies are looking for: bright, diligent, honest, well-rounded, socially-responsible, green, and connected people. Now imagine that you were giving a tour of your Facebook profile to a recruiter. Would you be able to make these kinds of statements?
All the Apple Event Rumors – Gizmodo
By Jesus Diaz from Gizmodo
This Wednesday Apple is having an event titled It’s Only Rock and Roll, but we like it. I’m sucker for the Stones, but only rock and roll? Here is the complete guide to all the rumors and midnight ramblings:
Oliver Stone returns to Wall Street for a sequel – Jim Cramer will play a part
Last Tuesday afternoon, a black Cadillac Escalade arrived at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in Lower Manhattan, built in the 1920s to resemble the Renaissance-era palaces of Florence, Italy. From a rear seat stepped a man in a cashmere sweater and dark slacks.
‘This is where the money is,’ he said, borrowing the words of Willie Sutton, the Depression-era bank robber. ‘There is more gold here than anywhere in the world.’
This is familiar terrain for Mr. Stone: his father was a broker, and his 1987 film, ‘Wall Street,’ became emblematic of an era of excess the filmmaker thought was fading, but in fact was only beginning. Now he is here to make a sequel, to capture greed on celluloid all over again, set against the backdrop of the financial collapse that began with the fall of Bear Stearns.
In a meandering walk through the crooked streets of Manhattan’s financial district — it was a week before shooting of the sequel, titled ‘Wall Street 2,’ was scheduled to begin — Mr. Stone said he never expected high finance to serve again as a tableau for his storytelling.
‘I thought it was a bubble that was over,’ Mr. Stone said of the 1980s. ‘I thought those days were going to come to an end. The excess.’
Despite his own years of hard living and a peripatetic existence — he would be heading to Venice in a few days — Mr. Stone looked refreshed and, at 62, surprisingly young. His original film was a morality tale about greed and unvarnished ambition, and Mr. Stone’s own views on the excesses of capitalism were obvious. But the film and its famous lines — ‘Greed is good,’ ‘Money never sleeps’ — have had a cultural endurance that he never expected, and perhaps never desired.
México, la mejor opción para invertir en AL: Santander
De El Economista
El mercado accionario mexicano es la mejor opción para invertir durante el resto del año en América Latina, por encima de Brasil y Chile, de acuerdo con Banco Santander en Estados Unidos.
En un reporte emitido este miércoles en Nueva York, Santander elevó la calificación de las acciones mexicanas, mientras que redujo las de sus antiguos mercados recomendados: Brasil y Chile.
El reporte señaló que una de las razones para elegir a México es que las valuaciones actuales del mercado accionario mexicano darán mayores retornos que las del chileno y el brasileño.
Conspiracy theory: Yellow Submarine iPod touch on 9/9/9
From The Apple Core
Apple will finally announce a partnership with The Beatles and its label, Apple Corps Ltd., at its media event that’s been rumored for September 9, 2009. At least that’s my theory.
Here’s why:
Microsoft Apologizes For Politically Incorrect Photoshopping
Microsoft has issued an apology via their corporate Twitter feed for what will surely go down as one of the worst photoshops of all-time.
Still, it’s hard not to feel for the guy in the photo having to tolerate this stupidity, so we have an equally horrible photoshop to help balance things out.
(Via Gizmodo)
Microsoft fired someone yesterday
I guess Microsoft realized what kind of mess they were getting into and changed the Polish site. They are now sharing the same picture of their U.S. counterpart.
(Via Microsoft Poland)
Edward Kennedy, Senate Stalwart, Dies
Senator Edward M. Kennedy of Massachusetts, a son of one of the most storied families in American politics, a man who knew triumph and tragedy in near-equal measure and who will be remembered as one of the most effective lawmakers in the history of the Senate, died late Tuesday night. He was 77.
The death of Mr. Kennedy, who had been battling brain cancer, was announced Wednesday morning in a statement by the Kennedy family, which was already mourning the death of the senator’s sister Eunice Kennedy Shriver two weeks earlier.
President Obama issued a statement acknowledging Mr. Kennedy’s accomplishments. “An important chapter in our history has come to an end,” the statement said. “Our country has lost a great leader, who picked up the torch of his fallen brothers and became the greatest United States senator of our time.”
(Via New York Times)
Lifestyles of the Chinese Rich
By Robert Frank from the WSJ
How does the typical rich family in China live their lives and spend their cash?
The folks at the Hurun Report, the Chinese wealth trackers and luxury publishers, have put out a ‘report’ on the new Chinese rich.
Bloomberg News
A chauffeur stands besides a Rolls Royce Silver Shadow car outside the Shanghri-la Hotel, in Shanghai.
It is unclear exactly what Hurun’s methodology is, or who they surveyed. Hurun says there are 8,800 billionaires in Beijing and 7,000 in Shangai–presumably ‘yuan’ billionaires. A yuan billion equates to about $150 million.
But as relayed in the China Daily newspaper, Hurun finds that the ‘typical rich family’ in China has a 43-year-old dad, 42-year-old mom and one 14-year-old child.
The report says the rich in Beijing need to spend at least 87 million yuan (or about $12.7 million) on property, cars and other luxury goods to be regarded as ‘one of the city’s new aristocrats.’ The bulk of their spending is on real estate, furnishings and fabrics, the report said.
The Chinese rich have at least three homes, often filled with porcelain and jade collections mixed with modern art. They spend more than $7,000 a year on piano lessons.
Rich men in Beijing drive Mercedes Benz R500 limos and usually are members of Yongfoo Elite, the popular Beijing club. Their wives belong to the Lan Club and wear Bulgari platinum and diamond watches when their drive their BMW sport cars.
‘During the past several years, the complexion of the rich in China has changed in many aspects,’ said Rupert Hoogewerf, founder and publisher of the Hurun Report. ‘Many of them say they want to be a sort of upper class, rather than only being rich.’
The conclusions sound more like a big ad for a European luxury magazine, rather than a profile of the uniquely Chinese rich. Perhaps that isn’t a coincidence for a luxury publisher supported in part by luxury advertisers.
But maybe in today’s globalized wealth culture and economy, the Chinese rich are increasingly indistinguishable from the America or European rich: buying the same Italian bags, driving the same German cars and frequent similar social clubs.
What do you think the new Chinese rich are really like?
(Via WSJ)
Reminds me of Yen (Shaobo Qin) in Ocean’s Thirteen representing Mr. Weng and having Linus Caldwell (Matt Damon) as his personal assistant.
Cramer sneezes!
Bless you, Cramer.
I have never seen anyone else sneeze on T.V. How do they repress it?
Hedging Bets on Bank of America
From the New York Times
John A. Paulson and Sallie L. Krawcheck are staking a lot on the revival of Bank of America’s fortunes, Breakingviews.com writes. Mr. Paulson, the billionaire hedge fund manager, is now the bank’s fourth-largest shareholder.
Meanwhile, Ms. Krawcheck, Citigroup’s former wealth management and finance chief, has been brought in to run the bank’s asset management and Merrill Lynch brokerage businesses, making her a contender for the top job. She has also snapped up $1 million worth of shares.
These might seem like gambles. After all, Bank of America is hardly out of the woods. Its core operations are likely to continue losing money for the rest of the year. Takeovers that struck both at the height of the bull market and in the depths of the crisis either used up precious capital or revealed poor risk management — or both — and left the bank in need of $45 billion of taxpayer support. And the shenanigans surrounding year-end losses and bonuses at Merrill cost Kenneth D. Lewis the chairman’s role and his reputation.